Domino effects modelling infrastructures collapse


Programme Seventh Framework Programme (FP7)
Programme “Prevention, Preparedness and Consequence Management of Terrorism and other Security-related risks” della Direzione Generale Home Affairs
Duration 18th February 2010 – 17th February 2012
Participants Presidenza del Consiglio dei Ministri - Italy
Fondazione Ugo Bordoni - Italy
Fondazione FORMIT - Italy
Theorematica S.p.A. - Italy
Home Office - United Kingdom
SGDN Sécrétariat General de la Defense Nationale - France
Ministry of Emergency Situations - Bulgaria

The European Directive 114/08 CE aims at identifying infrastructures located in a European Member State that, in case of malfunctioning (due to both natural or human), may cause, directly or due to domino effect, an unacceptable degradation of the citizenship quality of life.

For an ex ante evaluation of the impact induced by the malfunctioning of a particular infrastructure, it is planned to use three different set ofindicators, one dedicated to evaluate the economic impact, one to forecast the number of fatalities/injured, and the third one to consider the public effects.

Even though the Directive at the moment concentrates only on malfunctioning regarding infrastructures belonging to specific sectors (Energy and Transportation), the ex ante evaluation based on the above mentioned parameters will take into account that the initial malfunctioning may have possible impacts on all other economic and social sectors, due to domino effect and not limited to the sectors referred in the Directive.
In order to support the enforcement of the Directive, it is necessary to gain knowledge on the real functioning of the economic and social aspects of our society, with the scope to identify both functional interconnections among economic and social structures and the right conditions to evaluate the impacts which are strictly dependent on the real organization of the different infrastructures considered.
In this general framework, the DG Justice, Freedom and Security (JLS) of the European Commission has launched a special program within which it has been granted some funds to European projects, among them the DOMINO (Domino effects modelling infrastructures collapse) project developed by the Fondazione Ugo Bordoni, Fondazione FORMIT and Theorematica, in cooperation with the British Home Office.

In particular, DOMINO project has the goal to study and quantify the consequences of failures and to develop a model of failures occurring to economic and social infrastructures that operate in our society. In order to achieve these objectives, it has been developed the present “Pilot survey”, which represents the first operational step of the DOMINO project. In particular, the survey is customized for Experts working in different economic and social sectors which supply a specific “item”, meaning a good or a service, with the main scope to gain information to better understand the “supply chain” of the item itself.